A quick follow-up to the debate. All the pundits–even a lot of Republicans–are saying this was Kamala’s night, and if you saw it, or read them, you know why, and you probably agree. I do too.
But it wasn’t a sweep. Kamala didn’t lose a vote, but did she cut into the undecideds? Or into Trump’s base? Because if she wants to win, it seems she needs to. Given Trump’s consistent record of doing better (by several points) than his polling, the electoral college, margins of error, and etc., Harris needs to be up by 5 points going into the election to feel safe, and she’s not there.
What impressed me with Trump was his force. His anger, his outrage, and his disdain. All that comes through, in his petulant facial expression, his stream of consciousness rants, the sheer vehemence with which he puts forth his bile.
His delivery can be mesmerizing. With Harris you’re listening, analyzing; with Trump, it’s a visceral experience, your mind turns off and the momentum of his rhetoric carries you along.
Yes, content-wise, he’s absurd and in a sane country he’d be laughed off the stage, not elected to any office, let alone the presidency. Obviously, this isn’t a sane country, then, and there’s the rub.
Trump speaks to the outrage–rational or not–of those famously “forgotten Americans,” not necessarily economically immiserated, but people who can’t understand what happened to America, why it doesn’t live up to their fantasies, why they aren’t happier. A lot of people say “That’s life,” or “crap happens,” or “well, let’s get to work,” but some folk want someone to blame. They want to stew. They want to exaggerate how bad things are, because only exaggerations match the dark feelings inside them. Trump answers their need.
Focusing on the absurdity of his content misses the point. (They say if you really want to get the dynamics of a debate, turn down the sound.) It’s his mood that comes across: aggrieved, sad, angry, and ready to lash out. Most Americans don’t find that appealing, but many do.
I’ve said before that Trump is part Pat Buchanan, part Ross Perot, and part P. T. Barnum, but last night none of them showed up.
Instead, Trump was the guy at the end of the bar: mad, embarrassing, ranting, won’t shut up, gets a little crazy at times (“Jew-hating Marxist!,” “they’re eating the cats!,” “they’re doing abortions after the birth!”).
The problem is there are a lot of people in America just like him, who will only resonate to that dark message. In the past, they haven’t voted. Trump’s strategy from 2016 on has been to gamble on getting these voters on his side: Get them out like they’ve never been gotten, also manage to hold onto the Republican base somehow, and maybe squeak out a win in the electoral college. To get these non-voting types out however, requires some very unconventional, unappealing, behavior, and Trump delivered.
It’s worked before.