Earlier this week, Dan Williams wrote here at Current that Democrats should fear the strong position in which Donald Trump finds himself in the polls, especially in the battleground states that will determine election 2024. I don’t disagree that Democrats should be concerned. I do wish to provide three caveats, however, that might encourage Democrats or throw a hint of caution towards Trump supporters.
First, polls do seem to indicate that both Biden and Trump are strongly disliked by the electorate. However, my suspicion is that while many dislike Biden, a similar number positively loathes Trump. In other words, the anti-Trump sentiment is more motivated than the anti-Biden sentiment. Also, I do not exaggerate when I say Democrats and related interest will spend about $1 billion (with a b) this summer and fall reminding the electorate of why they threw out Trump in the first place. There is likely a critical mass of people who dislike Biden but will vote for him anyway because they hate Trump more. But the obverse is probably untrue. Not very many anti-Trump people will vote for him because they dislike Biden more.
Second, in a close race, get-out-the-vote (GOTV) efforts matter. Recent stories indicate that Democrats have a substantial money advantage over the Republicans as Ronna McDaniel has mismanaged the Republican National Committee into near ruin. Not only does the party not have any money, what they have spent money on is consultants and mass media. Democrats, in contrast, have spent their money on voter lists and GOTV organization. Trump, of course, is spending millions of his campaign dollars paying for his enormous legal fees rather than setting up a winning campaign. In a close election these things matter. Just ask President Romney.
Finally, Dan points out the shifting demographics of the respective coalitions backing Trump and Biden. In short, the Biden coalition is trending educated and suburban, while Trump is winning larger shares of the non-college educated vote than past Republicans, making some inroads in the Black and Hispanic communities as well. Again, while this bodes ill for Biden, there is a silver lining. Educated voters are more likely to vote than non-educated voters. Meanwhile, Trump will have to work harder to get his voters to the polls. Yet, as I just indicated, Trump and his party are poorly positioned to do just that.
Harry Jaffa is reputed to have once said, “This election will be decided by events that have yet to occur.” I am not a political scientist who believes that elections are determined by factors beyond the candidates’ control, that campaigns do not really matter. How candidates define the terms of an election and how they react to the other side and unexpected events matters. There is still time for Biden to change the fundamentals of the election.
I have said in The Arena that if Trump is as bad as Democrats say his is, for their own sake and that of the country they should run a stronger candidate than Joe Biden. Still, for the reasons stated above, I would cautiously say Biden stands a good chance at reelection. It surely is not a slam dunk. Dan Williams’s warning should be heeded. Biden is in the worst position a sitting president has been in for reelection since Jimmy Carter. We all know how that turned out. While the economy is turning around, much of the population has imbibed the notion that economic circumstances are bad. They may not be convincible that this is not the case. This is reasonable. Surely inflation has made all kinds of goods, especially food, more expensive. The rising interest rates in response to inflation have made housing and automobiles more expensive. Also, Biden’s handling of foreign policy (Afghanistan, Iran, Russia) has been less than stellar. The Democrats in general find themselves on the wrong side of the public on key issues such as the border and crime.
Unlike Carter, however, Biden is not running against the equivalent of Ronald Reagan. The Democrats were behind on the major issues in 2022, but a campaign of “threat to democracy” and “abortion” proved effective in blunting Republican gains. They seem primed to run the same campaign in 2024. If I were a betting man, I’d say it works. You should note, however, that I am not placing any bets.
College educated voters vs non- college educated voters would seem to be one determining factor between polls showing Trump leading Biden. However, Biden’s age, apparent memory problems , and the border issues also appear determining factor. I am almost 80 years old & Biden’’s age is concerting to me. I will never vote for Trump but believe he has a good chance of being President again. My wife & I are moderate independent voter’s who oppose abortion but believe that government as well as the church
must help those in need.
John: I think its clear that Joe Biden is not what he used to be. But he had done good for the country in these four years. But he is our best option in 2024.
Joe Biden is old, tired, forgetful, sometimes confused. He has no radical, robust vision for the future of the country. He just wants to muddle on, incrementally working on problems at home and maintaing as much minimal sanity abroad as possible without starting any shooting wars requiring American boots.
Which makes him the obvious conservative choice. Bring it on.