On Friday,July 14th the GOP candidates for president will get a chance to speak to Iowa evangelicals. Bob Vander Plaats, the most powerful Christian Right activist in the Hawkeye State, is sponsoring the event. Tucker Carlson is hosting it. Fox News is broadcasting it. Guests include Ron DeSantis, Mike Pence, Tim Scott, Nikki Haley, Asa Hutchinson, and Vivek Ramaswamy.
Donald Trump will not attend the event. A Trump spokesperson told The Hill : “Unfortunately there is a scheduling conflict and the President will be in Florida this weekend headlining the premier national young voter conference with Turning Point Action conference….” A scheduling conflict? The Iowa event is on Friday (July 14). The Turning Point event will take place on Satuday (July 15th) and Sunday (July 16th). Asa Hutchinson, Vivek Ramaswamy, and Tucker Carlson will be at both events.
Trump has a plane. So if he wanted to be at both events he could. So why is Trump passing on Iowa for Charlie Kirk’s event? A few suggestions:
First,, the Turning Point event is a more “Trumpier” affair. Speakers include Kirk, Dan Bongino, Steve Bannon, Donald Trump Jr., Josh Hawley, J.D. Vance, Matt Gaetz, Roger Stone, Lauren Boebert, Ted Cruz, Marjorie Taylor Greene, and Mike “MyPillow Guy” Lindell. This group will stroke Trump’s ego a lot more than than the Iowa crowd.
Second, Trump thinks he has Iowa locked-up.
Third, Trump thinks he probably doesn’t have to win Iowa to get the GOP nomination. He may be right here. Remember Ted Cruz won Iowa in 2016 and eventually lost the nomination to Trump. Mike Huckabee won won Iowa in 2008 and lost the nomination to John McCain. Rick Santorum won Iowa in 2012 and lost the nomination to Mitt Romney.
Fourth, Vander Plaats has said he wants to “move past Trump” and recently had lunch with Ron DeSantis in Florida. Trump feels betrayed by evangelicals like Vander Plaats. He doesn’t understand how they could “move on” from him after he gave them the Supreme Court.
Fifth, Trump and Iowa governor Kim Reynolds are not seeing eye-to-eye right now after Reynolds said she will not endorse a GOP candidate in the Iowa caucuses. Reynolds will speak at the Vander Plaats event.
It’s too early for predictions, but I would not be surprised if Trump does not win the Iowa caucuses on January 15, 2024.