The poll was commissioned by the conservative website The Bulwark. Here is a taste of Sarah Longwell’s summary:
We polled three different scenarios and each showed Trump locked between 28 and 30 percent support from Republican primary voters:
- In a head-to-head match, DeSantis leads Trump 52 percent to 30 percent, with 15 percent undecided and 3 percent saying they would not vote if those were the only two options.
- With DeSantis, Trump, and “another candidate,” DeSantis got 44 percent, Trump got 28 percent, and the generic “another candidate” got 10 percent, with 17 percent undecided.
- In a 10-candidate field, DeSantis got 39 percent, Trump 28 percent, Mike Pence 9 percent, Nikki Haley and Liz Cheney 4 percent each, and five other candidates registered at 1 percent. In this scenario, 13 percent of the respondents were undecided.
There’s a but, though.
Across recent polling (including ours) showing Trump losing ground, he was holding on to anywhere from 28 to 38 percent of GOP voters. So, yes, a strong majority of GOP voters is ready to move on from Trump. On the other hand, here were Trump’s margins in the 2016 early primary states:
- Iowa 24.3 percent (Trump came in second)
- New Hampshire 35.3 percent (Trump came in first)
- South Carolina 32.5 percent (Trump came in first)
Trump then went on to dominate the field in Nevada with 45.9 percent of the vote before catapulting into Super Tuesday with enough momentum to win 7 of the 11 states. And with the GOP’s “winner take all” or “winner take most” delegate apportionment rules, in a big field of candidates, devoted pluralities can be telling.
But surely we’ve learned a few things since 2016?
Read the entire piece here.
A few other things I noticed after reading this poll:
- 51% of current Trump supporters define themselves as “very conservative.” 31% of Trump supporters define themselves as “somewhat conservative.”
- 40% of current Trump supporters “almost never” attend religious services. 23% of current Trump supporters attend religious services “about once a week.” 18% of current Trump supporters attend religious services “about once a month.”
- 40% of current Trump supporters define themselves as evangelical Christians. 60% of current Trump supporters do not define themselves as evangelical.
- 37% of current Trump supporters attended “some college.” 29% of current Trump supporters are college graduates. 26% of Trump supporters are high school graduates only.
- 48% of current Trump supporters live in suburbs. 27% live in rural areas. 14% live in urban areas. 11% live in small towns.
- 38% of current Trump supporters are 45 to 64 years of age. 29% are 65 or older. 20% are 30 to 44. 13% are 18 to 29.
- 56% of current Trump supporters have vaccinated against COVID-19. 42% of current Trump supporters are not vaccinated.
- 94% of current Trump supporters are white.
- 56% of current Trump supporters are female.
- 85% of current Trump supporters believe the 2020 presidential election was stolen from Trump.
- 53% of current Trump supporters support both Trump’s “policy goals” and his “behavior.” 44% of Trump supporters support Trump’s policy goals, but not his behavior.