Michael Kazin, Georgetown historian and leading authority on populism in America, reflects on this question in an interview with CNN. Here is a taste:
CNN: Based on the arc of the Tea Party’s development and the outcome of the election, how is it different from past populist eruptions?
Kazin: The Tea Partiers are ideologically similar to every mass conservative upsurge from the early 1950s to the present: They favor an essentially unregulated economy, no large government presence with the exception of the military and the national security apparatus, and the moral values taught in evangelical Protestant and traditional Catholic churches.
But they have motivated more people against a perceived “socialist takeover” of the government than other conservative populist movements ever did. And they managed to capture the imagination of the media in a way conservative activists have not done since the birth of the new Christian Right over three decades ago.
CNN: How long will the kind of mass anger that the Tea Party is channeling last? And how can Obama tap some of the anger and benefit from it?
Kazin: The mass anger is due to a combination of two kinds of fear: that the economy will not recover soon and that the federal government is usurping power that should be wielded by private citizens, in and out of business. To a certain extent, the new GOP-controlled House can mollify the latter fear, but it will take a vigorous recovery to address the fears of long-term joblessness.
The core of the Tea Party is composed of committed conservatives who will never support Obama, no matter what he does. So he will have to address the fears and anger among independent voters that helped the movement gain some traction among people who aren’t ideologues; he can’t win over his sworn enemies.
CNN: What strands of the argument will endure? Tax cuts? Spending cuts? No to health care reform? And how will that affect Obama in the second half of his presidency?
Kazin: Again, the answer depends on what happens over the next two years or, if Obama wins re-election, the next six. Most Americans are, as two political scientists wrote back in 1967, “ideological conservatives but operational liberals.” They want the government to help them in a variety of ways, but they rail at “big government” and think their taxes are too high.
Obama will have to make a vigorous argument about the need to continue the programs passed in the 111th Congress in order to restore prosperity and to improve the health care system.
He may not win over as many independents as he would like, but if he caves into his conservative opponents, he will appear weak and indecisive and open the way for a primary opponent on his left.
He may not win over as many independents as he would like, but if he caves into his conservative opponents, he will appear weak and indecisive and open the way for a primary opponent on his left.
Whereas when Bill Clinton “triangulated,” he won reelection comfortably.